Immigration drives Alberta’s unprecedented population growth

New data from the government of Alberta’s Office of Statistics and Information shows that the province has seen exponential growth in both its international and interprovincial immigration.

From April 2023 to April 24, the province’s population grew by 204,677 or 4.41%—marking the highest year-over-year growth rate in 2023-24 amongst all the provinces in Canada. The year-on-year growth rate during the same period for Canada as a whole was 3.20%.

Alberta has seen a significant uptick in population growth, rising from a 3.67% growth rate in 2022-23 to a record-breaking 4.41% in 2023-24—the highest year-over-year growth since 1981 as of April 1.

A major driver of this growth is international migration. In the first quarter of 2024 alone, Alberta welcomed a net increase of 32,893 international migrants, including permanent residents, temporary workers, students, and asylum seekers.

The province is also benefiting from strong interprovincial migration, with many Canadians relocating from provinces such as Ontario, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, and Manitoba. Between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, Alberta recorded the highest net gains from interprovincial migration, outpacing British Columbia. All major Alberta cities experienced growth: Calgary gained 26,662 residents, Edmonton added 16,082, Lethbridge grew by 1,651, and Red Deer by 1,277.

In contrast, Ontario’s major metropolitan areas reported net losses from interprovincial migration during the same period.

So, why are so many newcomers choosing Alberta over other provinces?

According to Statistics Canada and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Housing Market Outlook, Alberta’s appeal lies in its relatively affordable housing market and a robust economic outlook. Despite rising property prices, housing remains more affordable compared to Ontario and British Columbia, making Alberta an attractive destination for job seekers and home buyers alike.

Housing affordability is a key factor drawing newcomers to Alberta. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the median price for homes in Alberta’s major cities in the second quarter of 2024 highlights a stark contrast with cities like Toronto.

In Calgary, the median price for a single detached home was $710,000, while townhouses and apartments were $454,000 and $330,000, respectively. Edmonton, Alberta’s second-largest metropolitan area, offered even lower prices: $485,000 for detached homes, $294,500 for townhouses, and $188,000 for apartments.

Comparatively, housing in Toronto remains far less affordable. During the same period, a detached home had a median price of $1,300,000, semi-detached homes were $1,041,000, and condominium apartments were $640,000.

Adding to Alberta’s appeal, the province does not have a land transfer tax, reducing upfront costs for out-of-province buyers and making it an even more economical choice for those seeking affordable housing options.

Alberta’s economic outlook for 2024 is positive, with real GDP expected to grow by 3.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous budget forecast.

The province’s labor market is also evolving. According to the Business Council of Alberta’s report “Who’s Hiring in Alberta?” (based on job postings from 2018-2023), the demand for workers is no longer tightly linked to the oil and gas sector, which had previously dominated the job market. While the need for energy workers has “stabilized,” there has been a significant surge in demand for trades and healthcare professionals, with growth in these sectors far outpacing population growth.

The report also highlights an increase in job postings requiring a college diploma or apprenticeship training, as well as a rise in the need for tech skills like business intelligence and data analysis. In contrast, job postings for engineering roles have decreased by more than 60%.

To further support its growing sectors, Alberta launched a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) stream specifically for tourism and hospitality, recognizing the sector’s increasing demand for workers. Additionally, the province has targeted healthcare professionals through Express Entry draws, with candidates in eligible healthcare occupations being offered pathways to permanent residence through the Alberta Advantage Immigration Program (AAIP) Dedicated Healthcare Pathway.

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